No changes again. The FED has left the same interest rates for the federal funds rate, and the markets have no reacted much to it since it was basically fully priced in. A cut would have pumped the market, since we are not seeing unemployment going up for now and I think that is being one of the key metrics for them to not cut. So im wondering if they are just going to wait for unemployment to go up, but at that point the recession is already there and there would be another 2001/2008 style event where they panic cut into a crash, and after that we go to the moon. That's always been the situation. The Federal Reserve and their other Central Bank counterparts have always been late to pivot from tightening to monetary expansion NOT because they're stupid, BUT because they base everything on "the data", data with information THAT has already happened by the time it reached Jerome Powell's office. But as long as there no rate cuts, then the current situation is "OK". The markets are slow and boring, but "OK". Yeah that is the problem, information is reflexive, you act on it after it has happened, so your decisions have a lag with reality, but you would expect that they have (legal) insider information on things to take decisions with more accuracy, but they either are doing this on purpose to cause a recession or are just in the dark trying to guess the next move but they can't so they just put it all on the data. Powell was asked why he cut before the election and he said that it was because the inflation forecast was 2.5% and it was before the tariffs, so he had a good answer there to be honest. But he could also have argued against cuts by claiming "we still don't know what Trump's change in policy will do". You can always come up with a reason to cut or not to cut. The next quarter should reveal what's next.
No changes again. The FED has left the same interest rates for the federal funds rate, and the markets have no reacted much to it since it was basically fully priced in. A cut would have pumped the market, since we are not seeing unemployment going up for now and I think that is being one of the key metrics for them to not cut. So im wondering if they are just going to wait for unemployment to go up, but at that point the recession is already there and there would be another 2001/2008 style event where they panic cut into a crash, and after that we go to the moon. That's always been the situation. The Federal Reserve and their other Central Bank counterparts have always been late to pivot from tightening to monetary expansion NOT because they're stupid, BUT because they base everything on "the data", data with information THAT has already happened by the time it reached Jerome Powell's office. But as long as there no rate cuts, then the current situation is "OK". The markets are slow and boring, but "OK". Yeah that is the problem, information is reflexive, you act on it after it has happened, so your decisions have a lag with reality, but you would expect that they have (legal) insider information on things to take decisions with more accuracy, but they either are doing this on purpose to cause a recession or are just in the dark trying to guess the next move but they can't so they just put it all on the data. Powell was asked why he cut before the election and he said that it was because the inflation forecast was 2.5% and it was before the tariffs, so he had a good answer there to be honest. But he could also have argued against cuts by claiming "we still don't know what Trump's change in policy will do". You can always come up with a reason to cut or not to cut. The next quarter should reveal what's next.

No changes again. The FED has left the same interest rates for the federal funds rate, and the markets have no reacted much to it since it was basically fully priced in. A cut would have pumped the market, since we are not seeing unemployment going up for now and I think that is being one of the key metrics for them to not cut. So im wondering if they are just going to wait for unemployment to go up, but at that point the recession is already there and there would be another 2001/2008 style event where they panic cut into a crash, and after that we go to the moon. That's always been the situation. The Federal Reserve and their other Central Bank counterparts have always been late to pivot from tightening to monetary expansion NOT because they're stupid, BUT because they base everything on "the data", data with information THAT has already happened by the time it reached Jerome Powell's office. But as long as there no rate cuts, then the current situation is "OK". The markets are slow and boring, but "OK". Yeah that is the problem, information is reflexive, you act on it after it has happened, so your decisions have a lag with reality, but you would expect that they have (legal) insider information on things to take decisions with more accuracy, but they either are doing this on purpose to cause a recession or are just in the dark trying to guess the next move but they can't so they just put it all on the data. Powell was asked why he cut before the election and he said that it was because the inflation forecast was 2.5% and it was before the tariffs, so he had a good answer there to be honest. But he could also have argued against cuts by claiming "we still don't know what Trump's change in policy will do". You can always come up with a reason to cut or not to cut. The next quarter should reveal what's next.

No changes again. The FED has left the same interest rates for the federal funds rate, and the markets have no reacted much to it since it was basically fully priced in. A cut would have pumped the market, since we are not seeing unemployment going up for now and I think that is being one of the key metrics for them to not cut. So im wondering if they are just going to wait for unemployment to go up, but at that point the recession is already there and there would be another 2001/2008 style event where they panic cut into a crash, and after that we go to the moon. That's always been the situation. The Federal Reserve and their other Central Bank counterparts have always been late to pivot from tightening to monetary expansion NOT because they're stupid, BUT because they base everything on "the data", data with information THAT has already happened by the time it reached Jerome Powell's office. But as long as there no rate cuts, then the current situation is "OK". The markets are slow and boring, but "OK". Yeah that is the problem, information is reflexive, you act on it after it has happened, so your decisions have a lag with reality, but you would expect that they have (legal) insider information on things to take decisions with more accuracy, but they either are doing this on purpose to cause a recession or are just in the dark trying to guess the next move but they can't so they just put it all on the data. Powell was asked why he cut before the election and he said that it was because the inflation forecast was 2.5% and it was before the tariffs, so he had a good answer there to be honest. But he could also have argued against cuts by claiming "we still don't know what Trump's change in policy will do". You can always come up with a reason to cut or not to cut. The next quarter should reveal what's next.