Even as someone who tries to maintain a slightly bullish expectation, I must admit that the chart does not look good at the moment and in the short run. It is downward sloping, with too many red cancles, which too often are larger in terms of volume then the fewer green ones. The lack of buying pressure and follow-through are striking. In fact, on the 12h and 1d log chart, the past few days ominously look like a continuation of the ladder down just before Feb 5, though seller volumes seem to have decreased somewhat on the 12h chart. I therefore believe we are almost certainly going to see another stab at 65K and 63K, probably already tomorrow. Unless we see a powerful bounce on meaningful volume at these levels, a retest and failure of the low at 60K seems the most probable outcome to me. Having that said, save for the Sharpe ratio, the monthly RSI, and the monthly MACD, key indicators look criminally oversold on higher timeframes. There seems to be considerable technical support in the low 60s and high 50s. Yes, the damage inflicted to the chart looks truly ugly, and the fear and pain are still very palpable. But without very bad macro or sector news, and given that major liquidity gaps are now located above, I just don't see how the sellers and bears could push the price below the low 60s or high 50s in the current circumstances, excluding odd wicks to the downside. Thus, whilst a lower low will likely occur the way the chart looks to me at this point, I do hope that in such an event we should see a quick and strong confirmation of the cyclical bottom, ideally in the form of a swift wick down, followed by a reversal on powerful volume. Hopefully, we are about to witness the last stage of the bottoming process, and the sooner, the better.
Even as someone who tries to maintain a slightly bullish expectation, I must admit that the chart does not look good at the moment and in the short run. It is downward sloping, with too many red cancles, which too often are larger in terms of volume then the fewer green ones. The lack of buying pressure and follow-through are striking. In fact, on the 12h and 1d log chart, the past few days ominously look like a continuation of the ladder down just before Feb 5, though seller volumes seem to have decreased somewhat on the 12h chart. I therefore believe we are almost certainly going to see another stab at 65K and 63K, probably already tomorrow. Unless we see a powerful bounce on meaningful volume at these levels, a retest and failure of the low at 60K seems the most probable outcome to me. Having that said, save for the Sharpe ratio, the monthly RSI, and the monthly MACD, key indicators look criminally oversold on higher timeframes. There seems to be considerable technical support in the low 60s and high 50s. Yes, the damage inflicted to the chart looks truly ugly, and the fear and pain are still very palpable. But without very bad macro or sector news, and given that major liquidity gaps are now located above, I just don't see how the sellers and bears could push the price below the low 60s or high 50s in the current circumstances, excluding odd wicks to the downside. Thus, whilst a lower low will likely occur the way the chart looks to me at this point, I do hope that in such an event we should see a quick and strong confirmation of the cyclical bottom, ideally in the form of a swift wick down, followed by a reversal on powerful volume. Hopefully, we are about to witness the last stage of the bottoming process, and the sooner, the better.

Even as someone who tries to maintain a slightly bullish expectation, I must admit that the chart does not look good at the moment and in the short run. It is downward sloping, with too many red cancles, which too often are larger in terms of volume then the fewer green ones. The lack of buying pressure and follow-through are striking. In fact, on the 12h and 1d log chart, the past few days ominously look like a continuation of the ladder down just before Feb 5, though seller volumes seem to have decreased somewhat on the 12h chart. I therefore believe we are almost certainly going to see another stab at 65K and 63K, probably already tomorrow. Unless we see a powerful bounce on meaningful volume at these levels, a retest and failure of the low at 60K seems the most probable outcome to me. Having that said, save for the Sharpe ratio, the monthly RSI, and the monthly MACD, key indicators look criminally oversold on higher timeframes. There seems to be considerable technical support in the low 60s and high 50s. Yes, the damage inflicted to the chart looks truly ugly, and the fear and pain are still very palpable. But without very bad macro or sector news, and given that major liquidity gaps are now located above, I just don't see how the sellers and bears could push the price below the low 60s or high 50s in the current circumstances, excluding odd wicks to the downside. Thus, whilst a lower low will likely occur the way the chart looks to me at this point, I do hope that in such an event we should see a quick and strong confirmation of the cyclical bottom, ideally in the form of a swift wick down, followed by a reversal on powerful volume. Hopefully, we are about to witness the last stage of the bottoming process, and the sooner, the better.

Even as someone who tries to maintain a slightly bullish expectation, I must admit that the chart does not look good at the moment and in the short run. It is downward sloping, with too many red cancles, which too often are larger in terms of volume then the fewer green ones. The lack of buying pressure and follow-through are striking. In fact, on the 12h and 1d log chart, the past few days ominously look like a continuation of the ladder down just before Feb 5, though seller volumes seem to have decreased somewhat on the 12h chart. I therefore believe we are almost certainly going to see another stab at 65K and 63K, probably already tomorrow. Unless we see a powerful bounce on meaningful volume at these levels, a retest and failure of the low at 60K seems the most probable outcome to me. Having that said, save for the Sharpe ratio, the monthly RSI, and the monthly MACD, key indicators look criminally oversold on higher timeframes. There seems to be considerable technical support in the low 60s and high 50s. Yes, the damage inflicted to the chart looks truly ugly, and the fear and pain are still very palpable. But without very bad macro or sector news, and given that major liquidity gaps are now located above, I just don't see how the sellers and bears could push the price below the low 60s or high 50s in the current circumstances, excluding odd wicks to the downside. Thus, whilst a lower low will likely occur the way the chart looks to me at this point, I do hope that in such an event we should see a quick and strong confirmation of the cyclical bottom, ideally in the form of a swift wick down, followed by a reversal on powerful volume. Hopefully, we are about to witness the last stage of the bottoming process, and the sooner, the better.