Not necessary. Many countries, most prominently China and some European countries like Norway, are already quite advanced moving away from oil, with tech like electric cars and trains becoming more important every year. While it willl take decades to completely replace oil, in a high price situation often the less you consume, the better. So in these countries, the effects of the high oil prices will be smaller and their economy can still grow or at least stagnate. (As a side note, China seems not to be too bothered with the Iran war and the blocking of the Strait.) There is even talk about "petrostates" and "electrostates" and a potential conflict of interest between them in the very Mbappe future. Electro states will probably win because long term their approach is cheaper every day. So indeed, as your title says, the current conflict could lead to demand destruction, or to an acceleration of the replacement of oil by electric technology. However, it must stay for a quite long time for that to make more countries move away from oil. The most likely outcome is that the economy of petrol-dependant countries may suffer a short hit but then the situation will stabilize again and they will continue to consume oil. This is not the first time we saw such a crisis. In the 1970s, the Yom Kippur war led to an 80% oil price increase and triggered a recession in several countries. But back then electric technology was still not developed enough to replace petrol-based tech. Now it may be different. I'd say that in 15 years the Strait of Ormuz will be almost irrelevant for the international economy, with the exception of some very backward countries.
Not necessary. Many countries, most prominently China and some European countries like Norway, are already quite advanced moving away from oil, with tech like electric cars and trains becoming more important every year. While it willl take decades to completely replace oil, in a high price situation often the less you consume, the better. So in these countries, the effects of the high oil prices will be smaller and their economy can still grow or at least stagnate. (As a side note, China seems not to be too bothered with the Iran war and the blocking of the Strait.) There is even talk about "petrostates" and "electrostates" and a potential conflict of interest between them in the very Mbappe future. Electro states will probably win because long term their approach is cheaper every day. So indeed, as your title says, the current conflict could lead to demand destruction, or to an acceleration of the replacement of oil by electric technology. However, it must stay for a quite long time for that to make more countries move away from oil. The most likely outcome is that the economy of petrol-dependant countries may suffer a short hit but then the situation will stabilize again and they will continue to consume oil. This is not the first time we saw such a crisis. In the 1970s, the Yom Kippur war led to an 80% oil price increase and triggered a recession in several countries. But back then electric technology was still not developed enough to replace petrol-based tech. Now it may be different. I'd say that in 15 years the Strait of Ormuz will be almost irrelevant for the international economy, with the exception of some very backward countries.

Not necessary. Many countries, most prominently China and some European countries like Norway, are already quite advanced moving away from oil, with tech like electric cars and trains becoming more important every year. While it willl take decades to completely replace oil, in a high price situation often the less you consume, the better. So in these countries, the effects of the high oil prices will be smaller and their economy can still grow or at least stagnate. (As a side note, China seems not to be too bothered with the Iran war and the blocking of the Strait.) There is even talk about "petrostates" and "electrostates" and a potential conflict of interest between them in the very Mbappe future. Electro states will probably win because long term their approach is cheaper every day. So indeed, as your title says, the current conflict could lead to demand destruction, or to an acceleration of the replacement of oil by electric technology. However, it must stay for a quite long time for that to make more countries move away from oil. The most likely outcome is that the economy of petrol-dependant countries may suffer a short hit but then the situation will stabilize again and they will continue to consume oil. This is not the first time we saw such a crisis. In the 1970s, the Yom Kippur war led to an 80% oil price increase and triggered a recession in several countries. But back then electric technology was still not developed enough to replace petrol-based tech. Now it may be different. I'd say that in 15 years the Strait of Ormuz will be almost irrelevant for the international economy, with the exception of some very backward countries.

Not necessary. Many countries, most prominently China and some European countries like Norway, are already quite advanced moving away from oil, with tech like electric cars and trains becoming more important every year. While it willl take decades to completely replace oil, in a high price situation often the less you consume, the better. So in these countries, the effects of the high oil prices will be smaller and their economy can still grow or at least stagnate. (As a side note, China seems not to be too bothered with the Iran war and the blocking of the Strait.) There is even talk about "petrostates" and "electrostates" and a potential conflict of interest between them in the very Mbappe future. Electro states will probably win because long term their approach is cheaper every day. So indeed, as your title says, the current conflict could lead to demand destruction, or to an acceleration of the replacement of oil by electric technology. However, it must stay for a quite long time for that to make more countries move away from oil. The most likely outcome is that the economy of petrol-dependant countries may suffer a short hit but then the situation will stabilize again and they will continue to consume oil. This is not the first time we saw such a crisis. In the 1970s, the Yom Kippur war led to an 80% oil price increase and triggered a recession in several countries. But back then electric technology was still not developed enough to replace petrol-based tech. Now it may be different. I'd say that in 15 years the Strait of Ormuz will be almost irrelevant for the international economy, with the exception of some very backward countries.